The NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game goes down today between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets in beautiful East Rutherford, New Jersey. While they’ve been polar opposites in terms of style of play for most of the season, the Dolphins are starting to look like a more complete team with a healthy Jalen Ramsey dominating in the secondary.
Miami is one of the biggest favorites of the week, as the NFL odds saw the visitors get as high as -10 after opening at -7.5. The move is largely due to the Jets demoting Zach Wilson as they’ll be going with some guy named Tim Boyle at quarterback, which begs the question… how bad is Boyle if the line is moving this much?
This game also features a total of 41 points, which is the lowest total for a Dolphins game this season. Let’s dig into it all and I’ll give you my free NFL picks for Dolphins vs. Jets on November 23.
Be sure to also check out our Tua Tagovailoa odds and props spotlight, along with our favorite Dolphins vs. Jets prop picks!
Dolphins vs Jets odds
Dolphins vs Jets predictions
Let’s start with the positives for the New York Jets, which obviously come on the defensive side of the football. This is a top unit in the NFL that ranks first overall in QB pressure rate and fourth in yards per play allowed. They’ve been especially strong on their home field where they rank second in yards per play allowed. This is incredibly impressive when you consider they’ve hosted the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers.
Their ability to pressure QBs should have a big impact on this game. The Miami Dolphins offense has been tripped up in games against strong pass rushes this season as they failed to top the 20-point mark in games vs the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs — all teams that are strong at pressuring the quarterback. As a result of this, I don’t think we should expect to see the track-meet version of the Dolphins offense on Friday.
So, Miami’s offense could take a back seat in this one, which is something we’ve seen lately with 20 points or fewer scored in three of its last four games. Thankfully for the Fins, the defense is really starting to come together with just 34 total points allowed in their last three games.
As someone who follows the Dolphins closely, I was told players take time to adjust to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system. That adjustment might be in place, while the defense is also as healthy as they’ve been all season. Jalen Ramsey has made a major impact with three interceptions in three games and with a healthy Xavien Howard, Miami might have a Top 5 secondary in the NFL.
Miami has also been tremendous at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, coming in at fifth in QB pressure percentage. This lines up strongly against a Jets’ offensive line that’s allowing the second-most pressure and third-most sacks in the league.
This brings us to the Jets’ offense, where the backup to the backup, Tim Boyle, will get the start after weeks of incompetence from Zach Wilson. Boyle has attempted 120 throws in his NFL career and has thrown nine interceptions to three touchdown passes to go along with a 50.9 quarterback rating.
New York has gone four straight games without scoring more than 13 points and is the only team in the NFL that’s averaging less than one offensive touchdown per game. It also flat-out sucks in two key areas, ranking dead-last — by a wide margin — in both third down conversion percentage and red zone touchdown conversion percentage. Tim Boyle is expected to save the day?
Adding everything up, I think we’ve got the recipe for a low-scoring game and will gladly take the Under on the 41-point total.
My best bet: Under 41 points (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Dolphins vs Jets same-game parlay
Under 41Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yardsBreece Hall Under 49.5 rushing yardsNo-sweat promo available
+389 at FanDuel
Let’s build off that Under by pairing it with a couple of player prop fades for Tua Tagovailoa and Breece Hall, who won’t be in a good spot to fill the stat sheet on Friday.
This isn’t a knock on Tua because the Jets have been fantastic against the pass, ranking fifth in passing yards allowed per game with just 178.7. They held Mahomes to just 203 passing yards, Justin Herbert to 136, and Josh Allen to 236 when he visited them in Week 1. Don’t be surprised if Tua doesn’t light them up either.
Hall has stayed Under 49.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games while also going Under 30 rushing yards in three of his last four. During their defensive surge, the Dolphins’ defense ranks first in rushing yards allowed per game thanks to allowing just 3.5 yards per rush attempt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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