With Jayden Daniels off to an electric start, the Washington Commanders have won four in a row to set up Sunday’s Week 6 clash with the Baltimore Ravens as the game of the week.
In a showdown of two dynamic quarterbacks, my Commanders vs. Ravens predictions will buy into these high-scoring offenses. My NFL picks point to Washington’s No. 1 receiver making some noise in this October 13 matchup.
Commanders vs Ravens prediction
My best betTerry McLaurin Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Finally, it’s happening. After enduring season after season of sub-par quarterback play, Terry McLaurin has a real difference-maker throwing him the ball — and he’s taken off since Jayden Daniels settled into NFL life.
The numbers speak for themselves. Even without massive volume, McLaurin has had a major impact for a Washington Commanders offense that’s scored 114 points across its last three contests.
“Scary Terry” has reached the 100-yard receiving mark in two of those games, including four catches for 112 yards last weekend against the Cleveland Browns. So, the Over on this 56.5 line feels like great value.
It also helps that Daniels and McLaurin are facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses so far in 2024. The Baltimore Ravens are leaking 280 passing yards per game — second most in the NFL — and were especially poor in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals as Joe Burrow threw five touchdown passes.
The ground game will still be Plan A for the Commanders this weekend, playing to the strengths of Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., and Austin Ekeler. But look out for some play-action shots down the field, with McLaurin always a threat to reel in a 50-yard bomb.
Though McLaurin is the clear top target for Daniels, it’s not as if it’s a one-man receiving corps. Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, and Ekeler all bring something different to the table and will demand respect from Baltimore’s linebackers and secondary.
There’s also the potential for Washington to be playing from behind here on the road against a Ravens offense that’s almost matched the Commanders for explosive plays lately. Daniels may have no choice but to air it out, and I see McLaurin picking up enough targets to cash this Over.
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Commanders vs Ravens same-game parlay
Terry McLaurin Over 56.5 receiving yardsDerrick Henry Over 82.5 rushing yardsCommanders +7.5
+380 at BetMGM
This might be the last week to grab the Over on a Derrick Henry rushing yards prop that’s sitting in the low 80s. Baltimore’s offense is on an upward curve, and King Henry has racked up 442 yards on the ground in the Ravens’ last three games.
He’s seemingly a lock for at least 17-18 carries, and he’s been turning his touches into six yards per carry this year.
Like Washington, Baltimore is going to trust the run, with the kind of big personnel that could overwhelm the Commanders’ defensive line. Opponents still haven’t solved the Henry-Lamar Jackson backfield, and I don’t trust this Washington defense to slow down Henry on Sunday.
Even with the Ravens back to looking like the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC, I see the Commanders making this a close contest — and this is a lot of points to lay with a Baltimore team that’s struggled at times to land the knockout blow.
In this matchup of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, I believe in Daniels’ league-leading 77.1% completion rate, though I’m edging the line up to 7.5 for some extra insurance on a touchdown margin of victory for the hosts.
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Commanders vs Ravens odds
Commanders vs Ravens live odds
Commanders vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Washington +6.5 | Baltimore -6.5
- Moneyline: Washington +240 | Baltimore -300
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Commanders vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- Washington has covered the spread in each of its last four contests but enters as a big underdog here against a Baltimore team that’s cashed in the 2H moneyline in 10 of its past 13 games.
- Still, the Ravens are only 7-6 ATS in their last 13 contests at M&T Bank Stadium.
- The Over is 4-1 for Baltimore and Washington so far this season, and these offenses have both scored at least 28 points in their past three outings.
- Though run-heavy game scripts could limit the number of drives on Sunday, the Commanders have hit the 4Q Over in seven of their last 10 road games.
